Gambling mistakes are all too common. The gambler’s fallacy is perhaps the most well-known. That doesn’t mean we won’t do it. A forewarned man is worth two, as the old adage goes. When it comes to thinking errors, however, it is more nuanced. By the way, it’s not just in gambling. We make fallacies in many aspects of our daily lives… even though we know they exist, understand them, and, in many cases, can occur.
The Gambler’s Illusion
As an example, the gambler’s fallacy, also known as the gambler’s fallacy, is frequently used. It is the error of believing that a thing or action has memory. A dice or roulette ball, on the other hand, has no memory. You might think that after 9 reds, it will truly turn black, but that is not the case.
Every turn is unique because dice have no memory. Even if a six has fallen on a number of occasions, the next turn could be another six. Alternatively, a five, four, three, two, or one. As a result, a coin has no memory. After seven heads, the next toss can be heads or tails. This ‘heads or tails game’ is frequently found as a bonus game on slot machines: guess correctly and you double your bet!
The gambler’s fallacy is the belief that the odds improve after one or more turns. However, with a die, it is still 1 in 6 (16.6 percent) and with a coin, it is 1 in 2. (50-50).
Thinking in black-and-white terms
Black-and-white thinking is one of the thinking errors that occur frequently in gambling. Some refer to it as the negativity fallacy, while others refer to it as the positivity fallacy. With black-and-white thinking, you only see the negative or positive aspects of a situation. Most people who make this mistake have a negative attitude in everyday life. They spend far too much time watching the news. Or you read the newspaper and are bombarded with reports about accidents, disasters, and crime. There are people who are both black and white.
When it comes to gambling, however, the positivity bias, also known as the optimism bias by some, is prominent. It stems from the notion that you, as an individual, are unique. As motivation, you could use the inner voice that says, ‘I am special, I am the chosen one, happiness is my portion.’
there is no gray area
You want the ball to go wrong a lot of the time without seeing. And the gray area, where you both won and lost something, pushes you away as well. You keep going because you were born to be happy, and you will triumph. You, in fact, play on the basis of hope.
It is preferable to take a more realistic look at the game situation. Then you realize that, like everyone else, you have good and bad days. And that you should focus on the game rather than on false expectations.
Error in Confirmation
Confirmation Bias is a term used by psychologists and other ‘eyes’ to describe this error. The Dutch translation immediately identifies the error: preference for confirmation People have a tendency to select information that confirms their preconceived notions about something. This occurs frequently unconsciously. As a result, when you read a lot of messages in a newspaper, you remember the ones that appeal to you the most without consciously choosing them. /p> /p> p> The confirmation error manifests itself in various ways in gambling and betting, for example, on sports. Obviously, this is dependent on your personal beliefs. They can appear rational, such as after reading a scientific study on slot machines. They can, however, be irrational and superstitious, as when you believe you will win (or lose) if a jockey wears a yellow jersey.
memory that is selective h3> /h3> p> A confirmation error is also a type of selective memory. We remember situations that confirm our beliefs the most. And in doing so, we can deceive ourselves in a variety of ways, including time. Even if it was the first turn, a winning turn is still recent. Following that, the lost turns are pushed back in time and/or thought perception. /p> /p> p> It is not easy, but the only way to overcome it is to be open to new information and to dare to examine your own (possible) misconceptions. Because of changes in circumstances, a belief can become obsolete or incorrect. Only by gathering new information will you be able to gain new insights. /p> h2> Error in the outcome h2> /h2> p> With the result error, you as a gambler look at the outcome too much and try to reason it back to the decision. When you win a gamble or bet, you consider your decision to be good, smart, and reasonable. If he loses, he assumes that he made the wrong decision in placing the bet. /p> /p> p> However, several factors influenced the outcome. With roulette, for example, these were the croupier, the wheel, the table, your fellow players, the drink, and possibly the brisk wind that influenced the ball’s path for a brief moment. Overall, the outcome is purely coincidental. /p> /p> p> As a result, judging the decision for an investment, bet, or other gamble later makes no sense. You make decisions in advance based on the information available at the time. /p> h2> Recent blunder h2> /h2> p> With the recency error, the gambler bases his or her decisions primarily on recent events. He makes a decision based on the most recent decisions and outcomes. /p> /p> p> This occurs, for example, when he decides not to gamble with the appropriate arguments. If the outcome remains favorable, which he did not expect, he gambles in the same situation. Despite the fact that the arguments remained the same. Or he makes a bad decision, wins, and then makes the same bad decision again. /p> h3> Combining blunders h3> /h3> p> If you decide to deploy higher in succession, you also commit the recency error. That is the combination of the recency error and the gambler’s error. /p> /p> p> It’s also possible that you think you see something familiar in the winnings from previous turns or matches. Perhaps as insignificant as the aforementioned yellow jockey’s or croupier’s nose touch when throwing the ball. You bet on the jockey wearing the yellow jersey or red if the croupier is on his nose. /p> h2> h2>Error looking back/h2> p> The looking back error is also dangerous. You’ve probably already encountered the “I’ve always known” error. It’s also very common in daily life. /p> /p> p> It’s a little more difficult to spot in a gambling environment. The gambler makes predictions based on past results in the retrospective error. In contrast, there is no way of knowing what will happen in the next round of gambling. The issue with the lookback error is that we believe we can pinpoint specific causes. However, there’s a good chance we’ll believe false information. /p> h3> feeling h3> /h3> p> It is frequently a feeling in gambling. You believe you made wise decisions after winning 7 games in a row. While you were simply fortunate. In everyday life, they are almost always incorrect inferences. There, the time span is frequently longer. If you see two people argue and then learn a week later that they are divorcing, you would have seen that a week before. /p> h2> superior blunder h2> /h2> p> The superior error is one of the gambling thinking errors in which you place someone else above yourself. You’ve elevated someone else. You value a friend’s opinion far too highly. In and of itself, the other person may have more knowledge of the game, and he may indeed score highly on an intelligence test. But that doesn’t mean you should ignore yourself. /p> /p> p> Aside from the superior error, there is also the nearly comparable group error. You value the group to which you belong more than other groups. That is not inherently incorrect. However, you do if you distrust the other person as a result and do not consider their information in your decision-making. /p> h2> Gambling blunders h2> /h2> p> Psychologists have developed dozens of fallacies, not all of which are necessarily gambling fallacies. In practice, this resulted in an equal number of names and descriptions. However, the majority of them describe the same thing. Making mistakes that are similar, the same, or overlap. /p> /p> p> The confirmation error, for example, is identical or similar to the belief advantage error, the attentional error, the Semmelweis Reflex, the conservatism error, the choice-assisted -bias, the bandwagon effect, the status quo error, and the truth effect. /p> h4> Sources /h4> ul> li> A fallacy’s name is frequently the result of an investigation. When a thought pattern deviates slightly, it can result in a new name. However, many have made a name for themselves in psychology and sociology. They are frequently the subject of new research. ul> li>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Such as Roese and Vohs’s 2012 Hindsight Bias study (pdf). Brian Hedden addressed it in his argument Hindsight Bias Is Not a Bias (pdf). /li> /ul> /li> /li> li> Many studies also look at general fallacies. The official term for cognitive biases is cognitive biases. ul> li>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Holtgraves and Skeel, for example, conducted lottery bias research in 2006. (pdf) /li> /li> li> Ehrlinger and Kim conducted research on decision-making and thinking errors in 2015. (pdf) /li> /li> li> Juemin Xu investigated gambling-related thinking errors. He focused on the Gambler’s Misconception in particular (pdf) /li> /li> li> Mark D. Griffiths is probably the most well-known researcher on gambling and gambling fallacy. His colleagues frequently cite his research on “the role of cognitive bias and skill in fruit machine gambling” (pdf). /li> /ul> /li> /li> li> Go to scholar.google.com to easily consult scientific research. /li> /li> li> A brief summary of common common fallacies from the fundamental book Cognitive Therapy (pdf) /li> /ul>